All Weather Portfolio
A static five-asset portfolio meant to withstand growth, recession, inflation and deflation, popularised by Tony Robbins and attributed to Ray Dalio. It is not Bridgewater's All Weather fund, and our page has not yet been verified against the book.
What the All Weather portfolio is
All Weather is the name under which a five-asset portfolio circulates that Tony Robbins presented in his book MONEY: Master the Game and attributes to Ray Dalio. The secondary sources we have consulted place the book in 2014. The idea is to split money between assets that behave differently depending on the economic scenario (growth, recession, inflation or deflation), so that no single scenario wipes out everything.
It is also worth separating two things that share a name. Bridgewater's All Weather fund, Dalio's, uses leverage and risk parity with many more assets. This page deals with the version for individuals: five ETFs, no leverage, no signals.
Quick facts
- Author
- Tony Robbins (book), attributed to Ray Dalio
- Year
- 2014
- Origin
- Book
- Access
- Public and free
- Type
- Passive
- Assets
- 5
- Frequency
- Annual
- Difficulty
- Low
Who it is for
Anyone who wants to know this popularised portfolio, compare it with other passive ones and accept that 55% in Treasury debt is a bet on bonds.
Who it is not for
Anyone who expects Bridgewater's real portfolio or a sustained high return with very low risk, and anyone who needs a page verified against the book.
When it fits
It is a portfolio for studying and comparing. For a long-term investor who is already clear that they want a mix of stocks, government debt, gold and commodities, and who accepts that the result depends heavily on what interest rates do. It is not for anyone seeking a return close to the stock market's, nor for anyone who needs Bridgewater's real mechanism.
Current signal
All Weather Portfolio
Calculated with the closes of September 30, 2026.
No portfolio changes from last month.
Rules, step by step
| Asset (US ETF) | What it is | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | US stocks (S&P 500) | 30% |
| TLT | Long-term Treasury bonds (20+ years) | 40% |
| IEF | Intermediate Treasury bonds (7-10 years) | 15% |
| GLD | Gold | 7.5% |
| DBC | Commodities | 7.5% |
- Buy the five assets at those weights. There is no entry or exit signal: the portfolio is static.
- Rebalance to return to the weights. The book has not been consulted and the frequency is not verified. Lazy Portfolio ETF rebalances every 1 January, but presents it as a convention of its site. Our backtest rebalances once a year, at the end of December.
Treasury bonds make up 55% of the portfolio (40% long plus 15% intermediate), stocks 30% and the remaining 15% is split between gold and commodities.
Where the sources disagree
There are points we have had to decide ourselves. In the intermediate bond slice, Rational Reminder speaks of 7-10 year Treasuries, which corresponds to IEF and is what we use, while Lazy Portfolio ETF replicates the slice with IEI (3 to 7 years). In gold and commodities, Portfolio Charts rounds to 8% and 7%, and the other sources use 7.5% and 7.5%; we apply the latter split. And for the stock part we use SPY, while Lazy Portfolio ETF uses VTI with the same 30%.
An example with numbers
With $10,000 the starting portfolio is $3,000 in stocks, $4,000 in long bonds, $1,500 in intermediate bonds, $750 in gold and $750 in commodities. If after a year gold has risen a lot and now weighs more than 7.5%, rebalancing consists of selling part of the gold and buying whatever has fallen below target, until each asset returns to its percentage.
Backtest and out-of-sample period
With real ETFs from Apr 2006 to Sep 2026, with annual rebalancing and a cost of 0.1% per trade, the site's version returns 6.7% a year, with a maximum monthly drawdown of -21.1% and volatility of 8.2%. The Sharpe is 0.67. Average turnover is 7% a year. The best year was 2019 (+18.4%) and the worst, 2022 (-18.8%).
The history starts in Apr 2006 because that is when data for all five ETFs exists. The S&P 500 bought and held, measured from Mar 1993, gives 10.8% a year with a maximum drawdown of 51%. The start dates are different, so a direct comparison is misleading: use the period selector in the table below to see both over the same dates.
Inside that period is 2022, when rates rose and stocks and long bonds fell together. With 55% of the portfolio in Treasury debt, the portfolio felt it.
Third-party figures on Robbins' split
The book, according to Michael James' review, includes a backtest from 1984 to 2013 whose figures we have not been able to see. What we have found is a model by Benjamin Felix with Robbins' weights for 1984-2014: 9.87% a year in return and 7.19% annual standard deviation. It is a third party's calculation, not the book's, and Felix himself presents it in order to criticise it (see the next section).
Since it is a portfolio with no parameters to tune, we do not separate an out-of-sample period.
Growth of $100 (logarithmic scale) since , with 0.1% costs per trade. Data: US-listed ETFs, total return (dividends reinvested), before taxes.
Drawdowns from peak
| Strategy | CAGR | Volatility | Max drawdown | Sharpe |
|---|
Year by year
| Year | All Weather Portfolio | S&P 500 | 60/40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 2026) | +2.9% | +12.7% | +5.8% |
| 2025 | +13.6% | +17.7% | +13.8% |
| 2024 | +6.3% | +24.9% | +14.7% |
| 2023 | +10.0% | +26.2% | +17.2% |
| 2022 | -18.8% | -18.2% | -17.0% |
| 2021 | +9.1% | +28.7% | +15.9% |
| 2020 | +15.5% | +18.3% | +15.0% |
| 2019 | +18.4% | +31.2% | +21.9% |
| 2018 | -2.9% | -4.6% | -2.4% |
| 2017 | +11.9% | +21.7% | +14.0% |
| 2016 | +6.2% | +12.0% | +7.6% |
| 2015 | -3.0% | +1.2% | +1.3% |
| 2014 | +14.0% | +13.5% | +11.7% |
| 2013 | +0.7% | +32.3% | +16.9% |
| 2012 | +7.1% | +16.0% | +11.1% |
| 2011 | +17.0% | +1.9% | +7.4% |
| 2010 | +12.6% | +15.1% | +12.8% |
| 2009 | +1.2% | +26.4% | +13.1% |
| 2008 | +3.2% | -36.8% | -14.9% |
| 2007 | +11.9% | +5.1% | +7.2% |
| 2006 | +7.2% | +15.8% | +10.5% |
The first year may be partial. Returns are net of trading costs.
Taxes on rotating
The results above are before taxes. This portfolio is rebalanced once a year: historically it turns over only 7% of the portfolio a year on average, so it generates few sales.
In most countries each sale of an ETF in a taxable account realises a gain or loss that may be taxed, so rotating monthly is best done inside a tax-advantaged account (such as an IRA or 401(k) in the US, or an ISA or SIPP in the UK) where one is available. Rules vary by country and by account: check yours, or ask a tax adviser. See our methodology for how the results are calculated.
Criticisms and limits
Page pending verification. The book has not been consulted; the weights come from secondary sources that agree, with discrepancies in the intermediate bond slice and in rounding. The soundest criticism is that the test period coincided with the great bond bull market and that 55% in government debt cannot repeat it with rates at lows. Nor is it Bridgewater's real All Weather fund.
- The test period favoured bonds. Benjamin Felix points out that the period coincides with the biggest bond bull market in modern history, and that with rates at lows 55% in government debt cannot repeat that behaviour.
- It sells more with a story than with evidence. According to the same author, a combination of very low risk and high return is not something that can be expected on a sustained basis.
- It is not Bridgewater's All Weather. It is a simplification for individuals, without leverage or risk parity or the number of assets in the real fund. This observation is ours.
- Unverified page. The book has not been consulted and three details (intermediate slice, rounding and rebalancing) were decided from secondary sources.
How to run it
- Decide your weights before starting; those on this page are from the version Robbins popularised, not a personal recommendation.
- Map each ETF to the fund you actually hold, and check its fees and dividend policy before buying.
- Mark an annual rebalancing date. In a taxable account each sale may realise a gain.
- To work out the orders, use the rebalancing calculator.
Similar strategies
Permanent Portfolio
25% stocks, long bonds, gold and cash; annual rebalancing
Passive · AnnualCoffeehouse Portfolio
40% bonds and 60% split equally across six equity categories; annual rebalancing
Passive · AnnualThree-fund portfolio (Bogleheads)
US stocks, international stocks and bonds; annual rebalancing
Frequently asked questions
What weights does Robbins' All Weather portfolio have?
30% in US stocks, 40% in long-term Treasury bonds, 15% in intermediate bonds, 7.5% in gold and 7.5% in commodities. The five weights agree across several secondary sources, but we have not consulted the book, which is why the page is pending verification.
Is it the same as Ray Dalio's All Weather fund?
No. Bridgewater's fund uses leverage and risk parity with many more assets. This is a simplification for individuals with five assets.
How often is it rebalanced?
We have not verified it in the book. Lazy Portfolio ETF uses once a year, on 1 January, and our backtest does it at the end of December. Both are conventions, not a rule from the author.
Why does the portfolio have so many Treasury bonds?
Because of the split: 40% in long bonds plus 15% in intermediate ones make 55%. It is one of the most repeated criticisms, because the result depends heavily on what interest rates do.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is educational information about a portfolio publicised in a book. Backtests and past performance do not guarantee future results, and you can lose money.
Sources and review date
- Tony Robbins, "MONEY: Master the Game". Book not consulted directly
- Portfolio Charts, "All Seasons Portfolio" · accessed October 10, 2026
- Michael James on Money, review of "MONEY Master the Game" (27 April 2015) · accessed October 10, 2026
- Benjamin Felix, Rational Reminder, "Stories over Science" (21 November 2014) · accessed October 10, 2026
- Lazy Portfolio ETF, "Ray Dalio All Weather" · accessed October 10, 2026
Page last reviewed on October 11, 2026; figures and signal are recalculated at every monthly close (latest: September 30, 2026). How we work: editorial policy and methodology.
Educational and informational content. It is not investment advice or a personal recommendation. The results shown are historical simulations (backtests) using US-listed ETFs; past performance does not guarantee future results and you may lose some or all of the capital invested. Real returns will depend on your costs, taxes, currency and execution timing.