Every month we work out the portfolio of 9 tactical strategies, measure them with real data and give you the tools to execute them with a handful of ETFs. Reference close: September 30, 2026.
Updated · close
+1.9%
VAA-G12 (Vigilant Asset Allocation) +19% S&P 500 +36% over 24 months (base 100, strategy net of costs). Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The 4 strategies with the highest return in Sep 2026, with the portfolio that results from applying their rules at the September 30, 2026 close. A good month says nothing about the next one: look at them with their full history.
Return in Sep 2026 +1.9%
Calculated with the closes of September 30, 2026.
Return in Sep 2026 +1.3%
Calculated with the closes of September 30, 2026.
Return in Sep 2026 +0.1%
Calculated with the closes of September 30, 2026.
Return in Sep 2026 -0.2%
Calculated with the closes of September 30, 2026.
There are 15 strategy pages. Search by name, author or idea (momentum, canary, Keller, permanent portfolio…) and filter by origin, difficulty or frequency.
Portfolio that results from applying the rules at the September 30, 2026 close. Tactical strategies are executed on the first business day of the following month; passive ones are rebalanced once a year and act as yardsticks.
| Strategy | Mode | Portfolio now | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three-fund portfolio (Bogleheads) | Annual rebalancing | VTI 42%, BND 40%, VXUS 18% | 7.8% | -21% | 0.71 |
| Permanent Portfolio | Annual rebalancing | SPY 25%, TLT 25%, GLD 25%, BIL 25% | 7.0% | -16% | 0.76 |
| All Weather Portfolio | Annual rebalancing | TLT 40%, SPY 30%, IEF 15%, GLD 8%, DBC 8% | 6.7% | -21% | 0.67 |
| Dual Momentum (GEM) | Offensive mode | ACWX 100% | 9.4% | -20% | 0.67 |
| Faber GTAA 5 | Mixed · 40% defensive | BIL 40%, SPY 20%, EFA 20%, GSG 20% | 4.5% | -11% | 0.50 |
| 60/40 Portfolio | Annual rebalancing | SPY 60%, IEF 40% | 8.5% | -27% | 0.84 |
| Golden Butterfly | Annual rebalancing | SPY 20%, IWN 20%, TLT 20%, SHY 20%, GLD 20% | 7.5% | -18% | 0.78 |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio | Annual rebalancing | BND 40%, VOO 10%, VTV 10%, VB 10%, VBR 10%, VXUS 10%, VNQ 10% | 7.0% | -19% | 0.61 |
| VAA-G4 (Vigilant Asset Allocation) | Defensive mode | SHY 100% | 6.9% | -22% | 0.57 |
| LAA (Lethargic Asset Allocation) | Offensive mode | QQQ 25%, IWD 25%, GLD 25%, IEF 25% | 9.8% | -19% | 0.96 |
| Accelerating Dual Momentum (ADM) | Offensive mode | SPY 100% | 12.5% | -35% | 0.77 |
Our own backtest with real ETFs, with 0.1% costs per trade. S&P 500 since Mar 1993: 10.8% a year, worst drawdown -51%. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Strategy | Since | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAA-G12 (Vigilant Asset Allocation) | Jun 2008 | 7.1% | -30% | 0.61 |
| BAA-G12 (Bold Asset Allocation) | Sep 2008 | 7.5% | -13% | 0.77 |
| HAA Balanced | Sep 2008 | 9.7% | -9% | 0.92 |
| DAA-G12 (Defensive Asset Allocation) | Jun 2008 | 7.6% | -19% | 0.75 |
Returns, volatility and drawdowns over the period and with the costs you choose.
Open the comparison toolStarting capital + monthly contribution, with commissions and fund costs.
Open the simulatorEnter your portfolio and get the month's orders, with a tax reminder.
Open the rebalancing toolA note from Mario Marin Fernandez, owner and editor.
Owner and editor
Following a tactical strategy has obstacles that almost nobody explains together, and this site exists to put them in one place. Each month I calculate the signal with the original rules from the authors, publish my replication of the papers' results and log every signal on the day of the close, so it can be checked rather than simply believed.
Three things seem essential to me. Rotating has tax consequences, so every page flags them (how we handle it). A backtest that has not been audited lies, which is why I publish the rules and each paper's out-of-sample performance (methodology). And a signal is only useful if it is recorded before the market moves, so the signal log is public and timestamped.
I am not a financial adviser and I do not tell you what to do with your money. If you find a mistake, write to me from the contact page; how I work and how I correct is in the editorial policy.
A guide to Keller and Keuning's HAA strategy: what problem it solves, how the signal is calculated, which assets it uses and what its limits are.
Read guideWhat the momentum factor is, why it works, how to calculate an ETF's momentum with a step-by-step example and the difference between relative and absolute momentum.
Read guideWhat a canary asset is in tactical asset allocation strategies, how the canary works in HAA and BAA, its advantages, false alarms and how it compares with classic trend filters.
Read guideHow Gary Antonacci's Dual Momentum and its GEM portfolio work, with examples, backtest results, strengths and limits, and how it differs from HAA.
Read guideA practical guide with a checklist for running a tactical strategy every month: when to trade, how to map the signal to ETFs, work out the orders and record your trades.
Read guideCommon biases in investment strategy backtests (overfitting, survivorship bias, costs, execution) and how to detect them before trusting a strategy.
Read guideEducational and informational content. It is not investment advice or a personal recommendation. The results shown are historical simulations (backtests) using US-listed ETFs; past performance does not guarantee future results and you may lose some or all of the capital invested. Real returns will depend on your costs, taxes, currency and execution timing.