Guides
Concepts explained plainly, with real figures from our own engine and the limits clearly marked.
What is Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA) and how does it work, with an example
A guide to Keller and Keuning's HAA strategy: what problem it solves, how the signal is calculated, which assets it uses and what its limits are.
Strategies · 7 minMomentum in investing: what it is and how it is calculated (1, 3, 6 and 12 months)
What the momentum factor is, why it works, how to calculate an ETF's momentum with a step-by-step example and the difference between relative and absolute momentum.
Concepts · 6 minWhat is a "canary" asset in investing (and why HAA uses TIP)
What a canary asset is in tactical asset allocation strategies, how the canary works in HAA and BAA, its advantages, false alarms and how it compares with classic trend filters.
Concepts · 5 minAntonacci's Dual Momentum explained: relative and absolute momentum
How Gary Antonacci's Dual Momentum and its GEM portfolio work, with examples, backtest results, strengths and limits, and how it differs from HAA.
Strategies · 6 minHow to run HAA's monthly rebalance step by step (checklist)
A practical guide with a checklist for running a tactical strategy every month: when to trade, how to map the signal to ETFs, work out the orders and record your trades.
Practice · 6 minThe risks of backtesting: why a good track record guarantees nothing
Common biases in investment strategy backtests (overfitting, survivorship bias, costs, execution) and how to detect them before trusting a strategy.
Concepts · 6 minDrawdown, CAGR, volatility and Sharpe: how to read a strategy's metrics
What CAGR, volatility, maximum drawdown and the Sharpe ratio mean, how they are calculated and how to use them to compare investment strategies without fooling yourself.
Concepts · 5 minIs the 60/40 portfolio dead? What the data says since 2002
An analysis of the 60/40 stock and bond portfolio with real data: return, drawdowns, the 2022 disaster and why strategies like HAA were created to avoid that scenario.
Strategies · 5 minTactical vs passive investing: is it worth rotating your portfolio every month?
We compare HAA, BAA and Dual Momentum with the S&P 500, the 60/40 and the Permanent Portfolio using real data, and analyse whether costs, taxes and effort pay off.
Strategies · 7 minBAA vs HAA: differences between Keller and Keuning's two strategies
A comparison of Bold Asset Allocation (BAA-G12) and Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA Balanced): canaries, universes, time in the safe asset, turnover and backtest results.
Strategies · 5 minThe real cost of rotating your portfolio every month: commissions, spread, currency and taxes
How much it really costs to follow a monthly tactical strategy: per-order commissions, bid-ask spread, currency exchange, expense ratios and taxes, with a numerical example based on HAA Balanced's turnover.
Practice · 7 min8 common mistakes when following a tactical investment strategy (and how to avoid them)
The most common failures of people following a monthly strategy like HAA, BAA or Dual Momentum: changing the rules, skipping signals, ignoring costs and taxes, or trusting a backtest without understanding its limits.
Practice · 6 minHAA Balanced vs Dual Momentum (GEM): differences, results and which one fits you
A comparison of two very different momentum strategies: HAA Balanced, which spreads across several assets, and Antonacci's GEM, which goes 100% into a single asset. Rules, return, drawdowns, turnover and costs.
Strategies · 7 minHow US taxes affect a monthly ETF rotation: short-term gains, long-term gains and account type
Why taxes are often the biggest cost of a tactical strategy for US investors: short-term vs long-term capital gains, where tax is not paid on trades, and how to estimate the drag.
Taxes · 6 minRunning a tactical strategy inside an IRA or 401(k): what to know before you start
Why tax-advantaged accounts suit monthly rotation strategies, practical limits (ETF availability, settlement, contribution rules) and a checklist for running HAA, BAA or Dual Momentum in a retirement account.
Practice · 6 minThe wash-sale rule and monthly ETF rotation: when a loss does not count
How the US wash-sale rule works, why a rotation strategy can trigger it, what counts as 'substantially identical' and how to keep clean records.
Taxes · 5 minHow much money do you need to follow a monthly tactical strategy without commissions eating the edge?
How to estimate the minimum reasonable capital for rotating an ETF portfolio every month: fixed commission drag, whole shares, and a table with hypothetical examples.
Practice · 6 min2022: the year stocks and bonds fell together, and what it teaches a tactical portfolio
Why the classic 60/40 portfolio suffered in 2022, what happened to bonds as interest rates rose, and the role safe assets and momentum rules can play.
Concepts · 6 minExpense ratio, tracking difference and spread: the real cost of an ETF beyond the fee
What the expense ratio measures, why it is not the only cost of an ETF, what tracking difference is and how to compare products that follow the same index.
ETFs · 6 minETFs or mutual funds for a tactical strategy? Trading, taxes and practical differences
How ETFs and mutual funds differ for people who rotate monthly: trading hours, minimums, tax efficiency, fees and which one fits a taxable account versus a 401(k).
ETFs · 6 minHow to choose a broker for a monthly ETF strategy: a practical checklist
What matters when picking a US broker for ETF rotation: commissions, fractional shares, account types, order types, settlement and reliability, without relying on a brochure.
Practice · 5 minEducational and informational content. It is not investment advice or a personal recommendation. The results shown are historical simulations (backtests) using US-listed ETFs; past performance does not guarantee future results and you may lose some or all of the capital invested. Real returns will depend on your costs, taxes, currency and execution timing.